What to expect when U.S. markets reopen after Labor Day: futures signals, ISM/JOLTS milestones, and the payrolls volatility playbook

The U.S. trading day starts with silence on Labor Day—no cash equities, no Treasurys, no official prints to chase. But the quiet isn’t empty. Futures markets and overseas sessions have already sketched a tentative roadmap for Tuesday’s open, and the week ahead is stacked with catalysts that historically move stocks, rates, and the dollar. If you’re trying to position for the first full week of September, here’s the framework that matters.
First, confirm the setup. U.S. exchanges are closed for the holiday and will resume normal hours on Tuesday. Stock-index futures have been trading on reduced liquidity, with S&P 500 futures, Dow futures, and Nasdaq-100 futures taking their cues from Asia’s mixed session and a modestly firmer Europe. Thin conditions mean those prints are more like weather vanes than anchors, but they still tell you that risk appetite hasn’t vanished over the long weekend.
Second, elevate the right milestones. The data run begins Tuesday with the final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing. For equity beta and sector tilts, two ISM sub-indices punch above their weight: prices paid (a proxy for input-cost pressure) and employment (an early read on whether factories are hiring or trimming). A soft prices-paid reading tends to support the “disinflation is intact” narrative that bolsters rate-cut odds; a hot surprise often tilts Treasury yields higher and dents duration-sensitive growth stocks.
Third, stitch together the labor-market tells. Mid-week brings JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls, and initial jobless claims. None is a perfect predictor, but together they signal momentum heading into Friday. The Employment Situation—nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings—is the week’s fulcrum. Historically, payrolls day expands intraday ranges and lifts implied volatility; the mechanics are simple: wage growth and labor demand feed directly into the Federal Reserve’s reaction function. Cooler jobs plus contained earnings growth favors a 25 bps cut narrative and a friendlier backdrop for equities; upside surprises tend to reprice the path and pressure multiples.
Fourth, respect the calendar’s personality. September has a reputation for choppier returns in the S&P 500—not a law, but enough of a pattern that risk budgets tighten and dips find less automatic sponsorship. That makes this week’s numbers even more decisive than usual: thin conviction plus heavy data equals faster adjustments.
Where does that leave positioning into Tuesday? Think in scenarios. If ISM and the labor suite lean cool, rate-sensitive sectors and the broader Nasdaq-100 typically respond well while real yields back off. If prices-paid or wages run hot, expect a knee-jerk bear-steepening in Treasuries, a firmer U.S. dollar, and leadership from energy/financials over long-duration tech. Either way, watch how quickly the VIX and realized volatility pick up—options markets are already priced for movement.
Bottom line: Labor Day closes the tape, not the information gap. Use the quiet to map catalysts, set alerts on ISM and payrolls, and size positions for a week where macro can outweigh micro in a hurry.