Brent holds around $68 as OPEC+ adds barrels and Russia’s outages persist: what the balance means for autumn crude prices

Crude started September with a stalemate. Brent crude hovered near $68 a barrel while WTI traded in the mid-$60s, a reflection of two narratives pulling in opposite directions. On one side, Russia’s refinery damage and pipeline interruptions have tightened some near-term supply. On the other, OPEC+ has opened the spigots for September and U.S. crude production is running at record levels—an elastic cushion that tends to cap rallies when demand looks merely decent rather than roaring.

Context matters. August broke a four-month streak of gains for both benchmarks, with declines north of six percent as traders priced in more OPEC+ supply, the end of the summer driving season, and lingering concerns about global goods demand. That set the stage for Monday’s holding pattern. With U.S. markets shut for Labor Day, volumes were light, but the price action still told a clear story: episodic Russian outages can tighten prompt availability and firm differentials, yet the structural supply backdrop into autumn remains comparatively loose.

How loose depends on three levers:

Group policy: OPEC+ endorsed roughly 0.55 million barrels per day of incremental output for September. While not seismic, it adds to the cushion and signals that producers still prioritize market share alongside revenues.

Shale momentum: U.S. output hit a record in June, underscoring how quickly American producers can respond when prices stabilize. Elevated crude inventories and refining runs in key hubs amplify that flexibility.

Trade rerouting: Despite refinery fires and drone strikes inside Russia, flows are often re-channeled via different terminals or grades, blunting the price impact unless outages become prolonged or widespread.

On the demand side, the picture is nuanced rather than bleak. China’s private manufacturing PMI crept back above 50, hinting at firmer domestic orders, but Korea and Taiwan remain soft in electronics, and Japan is still just shy of expansion. Europe’s PMI edging over 50 offers a potential offset if it sticks, especially for middle distillates and capital-goods supply chains. Layer in a weaker U.S. dollar, and you have mild support for dollar-denominated commodities—but not enough on its own to force a breakout.

What to watch next for price direction:

Duration and scale of Russian disruptions. If repairs drag and export terminals face repeated hits, prompt spreads could tighten and lift flat price.

OPEC+ compliance and guidance. Any signal of slower additions—or a readiness to pause increases—would firm the floor.

U.S. production and inventory prints. Another run of strong EIA data would reinforce the ceiling unless demand surprises.

Global PMIs and margins. Refinery maintenance and diesel cracks into autumn will shape appetite for certain grades.