Why oil climbed on Sept. 1, 2025 despite a U.S. market holiday: WTI vs. Brent, dollar moves, and Russia-Ukraine supply risks

Crude prices started September with a cautious bid, even as U.S. cash markets were closed for Labor Day. By late morning on the East Coast—around the time Wall Street would normally be fully underway—both Brent and WTI were up a little more than 1%. The drivers were familiar but potent: a U.S. dollar drifting near multi-week lows and renewed concern that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could disrupt oil flows after targeted strikes on energy infrastructure. Those two forces—the currency channel and the geopolitics channel—were enough to nudge futures higher inside an otherwise well-worn trading band.
Context matters. August ended with crude logging its first monthly loss since spring as OPEC+ output ticked up and non-OPEC supply stayed resilient. Several forecasters now pencil in a fourth-quarter surplus that could extend into early 2026, suggesting that rallies will need help from either policy restraint or unexpected outages to stick. That’s why next up on traders’ radar is the September 7 OPEC+ gathering, where even subtle shifts in tone can alter views on the winter balance. Until then, day-to-day swings are likely to hinge on headlines from Eastern Europe and the dollar’s path against major peers.
For U.S. investors, Monday’s move functioned as a preview rather than a verdict. With equities and bonds closed, liquidity was thin and follow-through limited. But the playbook for Tuesday is straightforward: if crude holds its bid into the OPEC+ meeting, energy stocks and high-yield energy credit could catch a tailwind, particularly if payrolls later in the week validate a gentler rate path that keeps the dollar under pressure. If, instead, the supply-glut narrative regains control and inventories begin to build as seasonal demand fades, the tactical bias may shift back toward fading strength in the more cyclical exploration-and-production cohort.
Viewed through a positioning lens, this is less about calling a new trend and more about recognizing a range with asymmetric catalysts. A weaker dollar and credible supply disruption can push prices to the top of that range; surplus signals and steady output from key producers pull them back down. Tuesday’s reopening of U.S. cash trading will translate that tug-of-war into sector dispersion—integrateds and refiners versus E&Ps and oilfield services—while macro desks keep a close watch on the front end of the Treasury curve and how it feeds the currency.