The first hour of trading belonged to tech headlines. The second hour belonged to the macro tape. Right at 10:00 a.m. ET, investors got a double dose of data: July JOLTS job openings, which showed another dip in advertised positions, and factory orders, which cooled again month over month. That one-two combo pulled Treasury yields off their intraday peaks and subtly reshuffled leadership on the equity screen.
Start with the labor signal. JOLTS continues to show a gradual easing in labor demand—openings down, quits contained, and layoffs not far from recent highs. Hiring improved a touch, but the bigger story is normalization: fewer hard-to-fill roles and less churn mean wage pressures should keep moderating even as headline inflation chops around. For a Federal Reserve that has hinted at kicking off rate cuts in September if the data cooperate, this is precisely the kind of print that lowers the temperature.
On the goods side, factory orders for July declined from June, reinforcing what PMIs have been whispering all summer: manufacturing is stuck in low gear. The details matter. Ex-transportation categories were mixed, and the core investment-goods proxy didn’t deliver the kind of broad-based pop that would scream “capex cycle.” That doesn’t spell a downturn, but it does argue for slower nominal growth into the fall—especially with tariff uncertainty still clouding input costs and pricing power.
Markets traded the releases by the book. Treasury yields eased from early highs, taking some pressure off duration-sensitive stocks. Utilities and homebuilding caught a bid, while parts of industrials and transports lagged as the orders data clipped optimism for a quick manufacturing rebound. Meanwhile, quality growth and select AI-exposed platforms held up: when long rates stop rising, that cohort tends to regain its footing. The U.S. dollar drifted lower and gold stayed supported as investors leaned into a slightly more dovish policy path.
No comments:
Post a Comment