Vietnam’s Growth Slows to 6.5% in 2025 Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure

Vietnam is expected to see its GDP growth dip to approximately 6.5% in 2025, down from the 7.09% achieved in 2024, as the burden of U.S. tariffs begins to bite. According to the International Monetary Fund, multiple risk factors are poised to drag economic momentum, including the removal of temporary stimulus and rising external headwinds. Without strong policy mitigation, the country’s export sector and foreign investment are facing vulnerabilities in the year ahead.
The IMF warns that trade tensions could worsen and global financial conditions may tighten, both of which would likely diminish export demand and investment flows. As Vietnam has long depended on its export-driven manufacturing sector to anchor growth, any setback in this area could have broad ripple effects. For example, companies may delay expansion or scale back production if foreign orders weaken.
Domestic stimulus measures that bolstered growth earlier in the year are expected to taper off, contributing to a further slowdown in 2026. Though these one-off supports helped sustain resilience in the short term, the IMF emphasizes that growth must increasingly rely on sustainable foundations: diversified production, stronger industrial capacity, and improved resilience to trade policy shifts.
Despite deceleration, Vietnam remains among the fastest-growing economies in Asia. Underpinned by growing demand in sectors like textiles, electronics, and manufacturing, Vietnamese domestic demand and regional trade continue to offer support. Still, maintaining stable investor confidence will require policy clarity and swift responses to global risk.
Crucial to counteracting the downside risks will be structural reforms that enhance productivity, investment in infrastructure, and regulatory reforms to reduce trade friction. Strengthening fiscal discipline and maintaining macro-financial stability are also vital. As export markets face uncertainty, Vietnam’s ability to diversify its trade partners and move up the value chain may determine whether the slowdown is temporary or more lasting.
In sum, Vietnam’s projected 6.5% growth rate for 2025 reflects both the current drag from U.S. tariffs and the fading effects of government stimulus. With high risks in play, the country needs to lean more heavily on resilient sectors, reform efforts, and stable trade relations to sustain growth beyond the short term.