Switzerland CPI (August 2025): why 0.2% inflation and a −0.1% m/m print point to an SNB hold

Switzerland’s CPI slipped 0.1% month over month in August 2025, holding year-over-year inflation at 0.2% and reinforcing the country’s status as the lowest-inflation economy in Europe. The monthly decline was driven by softer travel and transport prices—especially international package holidays, airfares, and car-hire—while rents and apparel climbed. Under the surface, the split between domestic and imported prices remains decisive: domestic costs are up 0.6% y/y, but imported goods are down 1.3% y/y, reflecting a firm Swiss franc and benign global goods inflation.

For decision-makers, the signal is policy-friendly. The SNB’s preferred core concept (excluding fresh/seasonal items, energy and fuels) eased 0.1% m/m and ran 0.7% y/y, suggesting underlying services inflation is contained even as regulated and housing components adjust gradually. The harmonised HICP—used to compare with the EU—was 0.0% y/y, further highlighting Switzerland’s disinflation tailwind from imports. With the policy rate at 0% since June, the August CPI keeps the calculus straightforward: inflation is not re-accelerating, and imported deflation is still doing some of the heavy lifting.

What this means for the September SNB meeting:

Baseline: Hold at 0% while watching the franc and imported prices.

Risks: A renewed oil upswing or a weaker franc could lift energy and tradables, but the current mix argues against fresh easing.

Negative rates? Officials dislike them and the bar remains high; a 0.2% headline does not, on its own, justify crossing below zero.

Business and market takeaways:

Retail & travel: The pullback in package holidays and air transport hints at seasonal normalization and competitive pricing. Expect continued value-seeking by consumers.

Housing & services: Rent remains a slow-burn upward force; service providers should focus on productivity to offset wage and insurance costs.

FX and rates: With inflation stuck near 0%–0.5%, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF dynamics will hinge more on external rate differentials than local price surprises.