How AI Could Lift Global Trade by 40% by 2040 — Opportunities & Risks

A new World Trade Report released on September 17, 2025, paints a picture of artificial intelligence (AI) as a catalyst for sweeping growth in international commerce. According to the report, AI could drive a 34-37% jump in trade of goods and services and raise global GDP by approximately 12-13% within the next 15 years. These gains are expected to stem from innovations in logistics, smarter regulatory compliance, enhanced communications, and AI-assisted tools such as real-time translation, which could lower trade barriers for small producers in less developed nations.

However, the report cautions that without targeted policies, these benefits may be uneven. Countries lacking digital infrastructure risk being left behind, and workers in economies unprepared for AI adoption may face disruption. To bridge these gaps, the report recommends investments in skills development, education, and social safety nets. It also underscores the necessity of predictable trade frameworks and reduced tariffs on vital AI inputs like semiconductors.

In summary, if global trade rules are reinforced and AI-inclusive planning is put into practice, this report suggests AI could not only fuel substantial economic growth but also open doors for low-income nations to expand exports by up to 11%. But realizing these outcomes hinges on how well governments can manage both the upside and the risks of the AI revolution.