Global Macro Today: UK High-Frequency Signals, Turkey Retail Slows, Mexico Output Drops, South Africa Data in Focus

International data releases painted a cautiously disinflationary picture that keeps central banks outside the U.S. in “wait-and-verify” mode. In the UK, the weekly real-time indicators pack—covering business activity, spending proxies, mobility trends, and labor postings—suggests a steady services pulse but no clear revival in goods demand. Hiring frictions look stable rather than worsening, and consumer-facing categories continue to track sideways. That mix supports the view that inflation can cool further without policy makers needing to telegraph aggressive easing—particularly if short-term momentum in prices remains tame.

Turkey offered the day’s cleanest signal on demand: July retail sales grew at a slower yearly pace. The easing aligns with the authorities’ medium-term plan to bring inflation down as credit conditions tighten and consumption normalizes. The detail now matters. If the cooling is concentrated in durable goods while non-tradables stay firm, headline disinflation could be gradual and keep real wages under scrutiny. If, instead, services spending softens alongside durables, the domestic component of price pressure should abate more convincingly, allowing the central bank to lean on its plan without forcing growth to stall.

Mexico’s factories told a different story: industrial production fell versus June, a reminder that cyclical headwinds still bite even as nearshoring headlines dominate the structural narrative. Construction volatility and uneven mining weighed, while manufacturing remains tethered to global tech and U.S. goods demand. For policy, the combination of moderating inflation and softer output argues for careful calibration rather than a fast easing cycle, especially with the peso sensitive to external shocks. Investors will watch whether industrial weakness broadens beyond a single month and how electricity and logistics constraints evolve in the northern manufacturing corridor.

South Africa’s data cluster—manufacturing and mining for July plus the Q2 current account—kept the rand and local rates on edge. The manufacturing print softened year-on-year, while the current account was expected to widen as import volumes outpaced exports, reflecting both domestic demand normalization and external price effects. For the central bank, that keeps the bar high for near-term cuts: inflation remains sticky in services, and external balances argue for holding real rates sufficiently positive until price momentum cools decisively.

Bottom line for investors: outside the U.S., the macro tone still favors shallow disinflation with localized growth frictions. The practical trade remains selective—favor balance-sheet quality and pricing power in markets where retail demand is cooling (Turkey), watch currency sensitivity and energy/logistics constraints where output is wobbling (Mexico, South Africa), and expect the Bank of England to privilege data dependence over forward guidance. If this pattern holds, global yields should stay capped, but country-level dispersion will continue to drive returns.