Stocks Seek a Foothold Ahead of Jackson Hole as Big Tech Sends Mixed Signals

Futures signaled a cautious rebound on Friday, hinting at a steadier open after a run of declines that left the S&P 500 on its back foot. The market’s near-term script turns on one speech: Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments. Investors want to know whether the central bank is close to starting rate cuts or whether it will hold fire until inflation and the jobs data point more decisively toward slack. With pivotal consumer-spending and inflation prints due before the September meeting, Powell’s tone will shape how traders handicap the next step.
Pre-market moves in the largest companies told two different stories. Alphabet firmed after securing a six-year cloud agreement with Meta that underscores how hyperscalers are locking in demand tied to the AI build-out. The pact reinforces the idea that compute and storage spending remains in an upswing, which in turn supports revenue trajectories for cloud providers and their broader ecosystems.
On the flip side, Nvidia eased after reports that work on a China-targeted H-series processor has been paused at a manufacturing partner. The development reopens questions about how export rules and supply adjustments might influence the company’s near-term shipment profile. None of that upends the longer-run thesis that AI infrastructure will expand for years, but it adds noise around quarterly cadence and the geography of demand.
Earnings-season leftovers also factored into the mix. Intuit traded lower after a revenue outlook that fell short of hopes, citing weakness in marketing software. Workday slipped as its guidance kept a conservative tilt. Those updates fed a broader theme of dispersion: even in favored corners like AI and cloud software, execution and guidance clarity are separating leaders from laggards.
Index futures were modestly green, with gains of only a few tenths suggesting that most investors prefer to wait for Powell before leaning aggressively. Communication services and select tech names led early, while defensives stayed bid after a week in which risk appetite ebbed and credit-equity correlations flashed caution. The overarching debate is simple: has the Fed seen enough to justify pre-emptive easing, or will it insist on additional confirmation that inflation is durably on track?
At 10:00 a.m. ET, that debate gets its next chapter. A message that emphasizes “wait and see” likely keeps equities range-bound and supports the dollar; a message that leans into risk management could put a floor under stocks and revive leadership in long-duration names. With liquidity thin late in August, the market is primed to amplify even small shifts in guidance—which is why the most consequential move today may be driven more by words than by numbers.