China Likely to Receive Less Saudi Oil in September After Aramco Raises Prices

China’s intake of Saudi crude is likely to soften next month as the world’s top oil exporter nudges up prices for Asian buyers, prompting several refiners to pare back purchases after record allocations in August. Industry tallies show a clear shift in supplier-buyer dynamics, with higher list prices tipping the balance toward more selective buying.

Allocation tallies point to about 43 million barrels of Saudi crude heading to China in September, which works out to roughly 1.43 million barrels a day. That’s down from the approximately 1.65 million bpd earmarked for August — a level that had marked the largest Saudi flow to China in more than two years. The August surge had been viewed as a move by Saudi Aramco to press its presence in the world’s biggest crude market; September suggests a cooling off.
China’s heavy hitters in refining are showing restraint. Sinopec, together with its Fujian refinery joint venture with Aramco, is trimming back planned liftings. PetroChina and private players such as Shenghong are also expected to draw slightly less Saudi crude than they did last month. Refiners told market contacts that the price increases — coupled with their own refinery margins and crude slate considerations — made them rethink the volumes they really needed to take.
Across the region, Indian refiners were allocated their full September quotas, but several chose not to seek extra barrels. Observers say this is partly due to lingering uncertainty around supplies from Russia, made more complex by recent political pronouncements from major consuming nations. With options and risks shifting, many buyers are exercising caution.
Aramco’s decision to hike its September official selling prices for Asia — marking a second straight monthly rise — played a decisive role. The benchmark Arab Light grade was priced about $3.20 above Oman/Dubai averages, a premium not seen since April. That increase made Saudi crude less competitively priced against other Middle Eastern offerings and some seaborne alternatives, nudging refiners to rebalance their purchase plans.
What happens next will depend on which allocated cargoes actually lift and whether refiners follow through on planned reductions. Market participants are keeping an eye on physical sailings and refinery turnarounds across Asia to gauge whether the allocation dip will translate into materially lower arrivals or if commercial adjustments will re-route barrels elsewhere. In short, September’s picture highlights the often-fluid tug-of-war between supplier pricing strategies and buyer economics in a regional market that now sits at the intersection of price, policy and geopolitics.