Canada’s TSX Futures Hold Firm After Record Finish, Cautious Outlook Prevails

On Thursday, futures tracking Canada’s S&P/TSX composite index showed a flat-to-slight uptick—up just 0.03%—after the benchmark posted a historic high in the previous trading session. Optimism among investors lingered, fueled by growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may trim interest rates in September, supported by evidence that inflation south of the border remains contained and tariff-related pressures are yet to materialize.

All eyes were on the horizon for fresh data: July’s U.S. Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims, both due for release later that morning, were expected to shape the narrative around Fed policy decisions.

In commodities markets, crude oil prices ticked up, prompting caution as U.S.–Russia tensions stirred concern over potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, demand-sensitive metals like gold and copper edged lower as traders awaited crucial Chinese economic data scheduled for Friday.

Adding complexity to the picture, minutes from the Bank of Canada’s July 30 meeting showed a split in views among policymakers—some questioned the existing monetary framework’s effectiveness in the current landscape. On the corporate front, energy firm Frontera Energy disclosed a hefty second-quarter loss amounting to $455 million, driven largely by non-cash write-downs on its holdings in Corentyne and Ecuador, reinforcing a cautious tone in the market.

In short, TSX futures are treading water—buoyed by hopes of U.S. monetary easing, yet tempered by geopolitical tensions and central bank policy debate.